Tropical Depression could form by late this weekend

Source NOAA

Source NOAA

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 miles per hour with higher gusts. "The latest model runs keep the system east of Louisiana due to a cold front arriving midweek, which will cause the turn to the northeast".

The disturbance in the western Caribbean that we've been watching for the last few days continues to battle moderate to high wind shear.

The area in red indicates where this system is likely to develop. Tropical Storm Michael's path then leads quickly north toward the U.S. Gulf Coast, with landfall somewhere between the MS coast and the Florida panhandle - with models now leaning toward the Florida panhandle.

An extensive area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is expected to move into the western Caribbean Sea in coming days.

The center's storm tracking shows it in southern Alabama by 1 p.m. Wednesday before veering northeast into all of Georgia and SC, eastern Tennessee and all but the eastern coastal end of North Carolina.

Environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical depression or tropical storm to form over the the southern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday or Monday as the system moves slowly northward. Areas of North Carolina and SC are still dealing with impact from hurricane flooding in September.

- There's an increased chance that a tropical storm or even a hurricane could form in the Gulf of Mexico next week.

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